AP09259049 "Schedule Delays, Cost Overruns, and Risk Behavior: A Methodology for Forecasting Project Success under Uncertainty"

State-of-the-art of EVM and PRMS research. It is expected that the review will be divided into 3 categories: EDAC forecasting methods, ECAC forecasting methods, and DC/CC management methods.

Duration forecasting model considering the impact of PRMS. It is expected the model development will follow 3 steps: 1) GM parameters identification; 2) EDAC calculation; 3) DC integration into the EDAC model. The model will be developed using nonlinear regression modeling on Minitab statistical package and RanGen schedule simulation.

Cost forecasting model considering the impact of PRMS. It is expected the model development will follow 3 steps: 1) GM parameters identification; 2) ECAC calculation; 3) CC integration into the ECAC model. The model will be developed using nonlinear regression modeling on Minitab statistical package and RanGen schedule simulation.

Validated risk-integrated duration and cost forecasting methodology. It is expected that the model, built into the MS Excel spreadsheets, will consist of 3 features: 1) its ability to forecast final duration; 2) its ability to forecast final cost; and 3) its ability to reflect in EDAC and ECAC estimates the DC/CC spending patterns.

Expected Outcome 5:

Results of estimates by the proposed methodology compared with existing analogs. It is expected that the EDAC and ECAC estimates by the proposed methodology will be compared with existing index-based and statistics-based methods by Project Management Institute and American Society of Civil Engineers, which is used in practice.